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 NHTSA helmet prediction of lives saved
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rkfire
Advanced Member
1689 Posts


Stratford, CT
USA

Suzuki

Bandit

Posted - 05/05/2016 :  9:03 AM   Join poster on Facebook as Friend                        Like
I came across this page for my state (CT), but I don't recall seeing this before.

Down the list of statistics, is a chart with motorcycle deaths by year, helmeted, unhelmeted, AND lives saved with helmet and additional lives saved with 100% usage.

Apparently all states have a similar pages, but unsure whether there is a total US page.

Where do they come up with the estimates? Guess, statistics, or medical opinion? I thought it was interesting anyway.

http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/depart..._CT_2013.htm

DataDan
Advanced Member
540 Posts
[Mentor]


Central Coast, CA
USA

Yamaha

FJR1300

Posted - 05/05/2016 :  12:14 PM
Here's the table for 2014:


Connecticut Motorcyclist Deaths

.... ..... total ..... helmeted ... unhelmeted ...... unknown ... % helmeted ........ lives .. add'l lives
.... .... deaths ....... deaths ....... deaths ....... deaths ....... deaths ........ saved ........ saved
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010 ........ 52 ........... 16 ........... 36 ............ 0 ........... 31 ........... 10 ........... 13
2011 ........ 37 ........... 10 ........... 25 ............ 2 ........... 29 ............ 6 ........... 10
2012 ........ 48 ........... 15 ........... 30 ............ 3 ........... 33 ............ 9 ........... 12
2013 ........ 57 ........... 24 ........... 22 ........... 11 ........... 52 ........... 18 ........... 10
2014 ........ 55 ........... 20 ........... 32 ............ 3 ........... 38 ........... 13 ........... 13


The lives saved estimates are based on the estimated 37% effectiveness of helmets in preventing death from an earlier NHTSA paper [1].

Data in this table starts with fatalities as reported in NHTSA's FARS database (for example, from the sorta easy online query facility).

Then, helmeted and unhelmeted deaths are recalculated by dividing up the unknowns based on known use and adding to the actuals. In 2014, for example, 20 + 38% of 3, or 21 helmeted. Same for unhelmeted deaths: 32 + 62% of 3 or 34.

Now, if helmets prevent 37% of motorcyclist deaths, the 21 helmeted deaths represent a larger number of potential deaths, some of which DIDN'T happens thanks to the hat. The "lives saved" by a helmet are 37%/63% * 21 = 12 (either NHTSA or I made a rounding error here).

The "additional lives saved" are estimated from the 34 unhelmeted lives lost and and the estimated 37% would have survived with a helmet: 37% * 34 = 13.


[1] The estimate of 37% effectiveness comes from NHTSA's paper Helmet Effectiveness Revisited. As Motorcycle Consumer News readers may know, David Hough recently impugned this work in his MCN column, but he is ignorant of data and the method. I have confirmed the result by applying the method to a much larger dataset than the authors of the original paper had available when it was written, and I have found confirmation of the estimate from totally independent sources. I'm itching for a fight on this subject, but this isn't the place for it.
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rkfire
Advanced Member
1689 Posts


Stratford, CT
USA

Suzuki

Bandit

Posted - 05/05/2016 :  5:39 PM   Join poster on Facebook as Friend  
Thanks for the info. I learned something.

It was somewhat surprising to me to see the lives saved, additional lives saved. I just never ran across this before.

I was curious how the numbers were figured.

At first the 37% effectiveness seemed low, until I considered all the other injuries besides upon the head, that can kill you. Considering that, 37% seems a terrific result. Of course, some crashes to the head, no helmet can be effective due to speed and what you're hitting.
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bachman1961
Male Advanced Member
2263 Posts
[Mentor]


colorado springs, co
USA

Honda

CB750 NightHawk

Posted - 05/07/2016 :  12:25 AM
That is a pretty unique find from things I've seen. Thanks (both) for digging that up and presenting it.

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